A Swirling Tornado

Thaksin sends Pojaman as a political hostage

You could feel the immense gravity around Pojaman Shinawatra as she flew in to Bangkok from Hong Kong on Tuesday after six months of self-exile.

Published on January 11, 2008

She looked like a swirling tornado that could turn the political landscape upside down.

Pojaman has made the biggest political gamble of her life. She has decided to return to Thailand after the People Power Party's victory in the December 23 election. The dust has yet to settle but she wants to be in control and to shape the course of political developments.

The situation remains fluid. Anything could happen.

Her husband, ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, will only return home after she has cleared the ground, which is full of political landmines. Once he sets foot on Thai soil again, Thaksin will declare victory.

Pojaman has a number of important missions to accomplish at this critical juncture. First, she would like to address the Cabinet line-up and play a key role in picking the new premier. Second, she would like to convey the message that she is a royalist. Third, she would like to find a way to seek a truce with Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, president of the Privy Council. Fourth, she is determined to fight the corruption charges against her and her husband. Fifth, her return will boost the morale of all her husband's supporters and serve as an overture for his comeback.

After placing a bond of Bt5 million at the court - where she is charged with corruption in the Ratchadaphisek land deal - she was set free. But she had to surrender her passport, as the Court will not allow her to travel abroad until she goes through the judicial process. By doing this, Pojaman has become a political captive.

The People Power Party, the reincarnation of the Thai Rak Thai Party, is scrambling to put together a coalition government. But who should be prime minister? Apparently, both Thaksin and Pojaman do not trust Samak Sundaravej to serve as prime minister. Samak has outlived his usefulness as the nominee head of People Power. The defunct TRT lost 111 executives in the Constitution Tribunal ruling, so Samak was brought in to head the party and lead it into the election. Samak has done his job in leading the PPP, winning almost 50 per cent of the seats in Parliament. Does he deserve to be Thailand's next prime minister? Well, he thinks so.

But Thaksin believes that Samak might be too divisive during this time when political confrontation needs to be toned down. Allowing him to become prime minister would create further rifts. He might wreck everything, because he does not think before he speaks.

Maybe Samak would be allowed to serve as prime minister for a brief period before he is removed by impending court charges against him. Then Banharn Silapa-archa, leader of the Chart Thai Party, could step in as a coalition PM. Banharn would thus fulfil his last act of self-glorification.

The Thaksin camp has been quick to point out that Pojaman wanted to come back to pay respect to HRH Princess Galyani Vahdana, who passed away on New Year's Day. Pojaman and her encourage wore black during this mourning period. Before heading into exile, Pojaman wore yellow. But Thaksin's supporters then preferred red.

On Tuesday evening, Pojaman made an unceremonious appearance. She was seen sitting behind Gen Surayud Chulanont, the prime minister, at a religious ceremony held for Princess Galyani at the Grand Palace. We do not know whether they talked to each other or not. But Surayud must have felt a shiver down his spine.

Pojaman is not a lady of words but of action. She has been behind Thaksin's throne all along, being the last to approve his Cabinet lists.

There were rumours that Thaksin had sent Kantathi Suphamongkhon, a Thai Rak Thai founder and former foreign minister, to meet with Gen Prem Tinsulanonda to seek a truce. Yet nothing transpired.

Thaksin decided to send Pojaman to Bangkok in order to test the water. If the PPP succeeds in forming the coalition government, he would like to return home, possibly at Songkran, in April.

Is the network still alive? Do the people still love him? Will it be safe for him to return? Will he prevail in the court?

Thaksin will only return if he is certain his people are locked in all the key positions, that his safety is guaranteed, and that he will win in court. He can return at any time, but once he sets foot in Thailand, he will, like his wife, become a hostage.

The country has been equally divided between those who love Thaksin and those who do not. As witnessed in the poll, the PPP earned more than 14 million votes, about 200,000 more than the Democrat Party.

Is Thaksin a man of honour? Or is he a man of corruption?

Only the courts can decide. The power struggle over the past two years is entering its final phase, when the judges' role will be most crucial. Who could have imagined that the courts would nullify the April 2 election in 2006, then dissolve the Thai Rak Thai Party in May last year and bar its 111 executives from politics for five years?

We are about to witness judicial activism at play. This will shape the political outcome in a dramatic way and decide the fate of Thaksin once and for all.

Thanong Khanthong
Source : The Nation,Friday.January 11.2008

Comment : Really?!?, Well, It (Thai politics) very ..very interesting.